Inverse and probabilistic analysis of induced settlements by wetting in collapsible soils

Collapsible soil exhibits major settlements under wetting scenarios, causing meaningful economical losses associated to damages of structures. Increasing the water content produce a permanent change in the soil microstructure and instantly reduction of pore volumes. In this work, the settlements induced by wetting in a full-scale foundation prototype over collapsible loess is analyzed. A hydro-mechanical (H-M) model was adopted to consider the soil response and the behaviour of shallow foundations caused by a water pipe leakage. The model was calibrated from experimental data and in-situ measurements, and the settlements were studied by considering inverse, sensitivity and statistical analyses. Final settlements after 2 years of infiltration were computed performing Monte Carlo simulation, showing the accuracy of the H-M model adopted to predict the collapse phenomena in shallow foundations.