The Differentiated Effects of Direct Mobilisation on Turnout: Evidence from the 2013 Austrian Parliamentary Election

In recent years several European countries have experienced a significant decrease in turnout, even as the level of campaign professionalisation has been increasing. Since scholars have recognised mobilisation as a key aspect in determining turnout, this article aims to disentangle the effects of mobilisation on electoral participation. It will do this by focussing on the 2013 Parliamentary Election in Austria, which saw the lowest turnout rate ever recorded in that country. The data used are taken from the Austrian National Election Study Rolling Cross-Section Panel 2013. This data source allows for the dynamic analysis of campaign effects through LOWESS estimations of the daily means of the measures of interest. Moreover, its panel structure permits us to take under control the individual likelihood to turn out before the elections whilst studying the effects of various forms of party contact on self-reported turnout. The findings show that only personal forms of party contact significantly increase electoral participation. Furthermore, these forms are more effective in increasing the turnout among low-propensity voters. Overall, one of the main contributions of the work is to provide differentiated estimations of the effects of various forms of party contact on turnout, computed on the same sample and concerning the same electoral context.